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How to create a trend trading system for stocks pdf


Trading Systems: Designing Your System - Part 1.


The preceding section of this tutorial looked at the elements that make up a trading system and discussed the advantages and disadvantages of using such a system in a live trading environment. In this section, we build on that knowledge by examining which markets are especially well-suited to system trading. We will then take a more in-depth look at the different genres of trading systems.


The equity market is probably the most common market to trade in, especially among novices. In this arena, big players such as Warren Buffett and Merrill Lynch dominate, and traditional value and growth investing strategies are by far the most common. Nevertheless, many institutions have invested significantly in the design, development and implementation of trading systems. Individual investors are joining this trend, though slowly.


The large amount of equities available allows traders to test systems on many different types of equities - everything from extremely volatile over-the-counter (OTC) stocks to non-volatile blue chips.


The effectiveness of trading systems can be limited by the low liquidity of some equities, especially OTC and pink sheet issues.


Commissions can eat into profits generated by successful trades, and can increase losses. OTC and pink sheet equities often incur additional commission fees.


The main trading systems used are those that look for value - that is, systems that use different parameters to determine whether a security is undervalued compared to its past performance, its peers, or the market in general.


The foreign exchange market, or forex, is the largest and most liquid market in the world. The world's governments, banks and other large institutions trade trillions of dollars on the forex market every day. The majority of institutional traders on the forex rely on trading systems. The same goes for individuals on the forex, but some trade based on economic reports or interest payouts.


The liquidity in this market - due to the huge volume - makes trading systems more accurate and effective.


There are no commissions in this market, only spreads. Therefore, it's much easier to make many transactions without increasing costs.


Compared to the amount of equities or commodities available, the number of currencies to trade is limited. But because of the availability of 'exotic currency pairs' - that is, currencies from smaller countries - the range in terms of volatility is not necessarily limited.


The main trading systems used in forex are those that follow trends (a popular saying in the market is "the trend is your friend"), or systems that buy or sell on breakouts. This is because economic indicators often cause large price movements at one time.


Equity, forex, and commodity markets all offer futures trading. This is a popular vehicle for system trading because of the higher amount of leverage available and the increased liquidity and volatility. However, these factors can cut both ways: they can either amplify your gains or amplify your losses. For this reason, the use of futures is usually reserved for advanced individual and institutional system traders. This is because trading systems capable of capitalizing on the futures market require much greater customization, use more advanced indicators and take much longer to develop.


It's up to the individual investor to decide which market is best suited to system trading - each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Most people are more familiar with the equity markets, and this familiarity makes developing a trading system easier. However, forex is commonly thought to be the superior platform to run trading systems - especially among more experienced traders. Moreover, if a trader decides to capitalize on increased leverage and volatility, the futures alternative is always open. Ultimately, the choice lies in the hands of the system developer.


The most common method of system trading is the trend-following system. In its most fundamental form, this system simply waits for a significant price movement, then buys or sells in that direction. This type of system banks on the hope that these price movements will maintain the trend.


Moving Average Systems.


Frequently used in technical analysis, a moving average is an indicator that simply shows the average price of a stock over a period of time. The essence of trends is derived from this measurement. The most common way of determining entry and exit is a crossover. The logic behind this is simple: a new trend is established when price falls above or below its historic price average (trend). Here is a chart that plots both the price (blue line) and the 20-day MA (red line) of IBM:


The fundamental concept behind this type of system is similar to that of a moving average system. The idea is that when a new high or low is established, the price movement is most likely to continue in the direction of the breakout. One indicator that can be used in determining breakouts is a simple Bollinger Band® overlay. Bollinger Bands® show averages of high and low prices, and breakouts occur when price meets the edges of the bands. Here is a chart that plots price (blue line) and Bollinger Bands® (gray lines) of Microsoft:


Disadvantages of Trend-Following Systems:


Empirical Decision-Making Required - When determining trends, there is always an empirical element to consider: the duration of the historic trend. For example, the moving average could be for the past 20 days or for the past five years, so the developer must determine which one is best for the system. Other factors to be determined are the average highs and lows in breakout systems.


Lagging Nature - Moving averages and breakout systems will always be lagging. In other words, they can never hit the exact top or bottom of a trend. This inevitably results in a forfeiture of potential profits, which can sometimes be significant.


Whipsaw Effect - Among the market forces that are harmful to the success of trend-following systems, this is one of the most common. The whipsaw effect occurs when the moving average generates a false signal - that is, when the average drops just into range, then suddenly reverses direction. This can lead to massive losses unless effective stop-losses and risk management techniques are employed.


Sideways Markets - Trend-following systems are, by nature, capable of making money only in markets that actually do trend. However, markets also move sideways, staying within a certain range for an extended period of time.


Extreme Volatility May Occur - Occasionally, trend-following systems may experience some extreme volatility, but the trader must stick with his or her system. The inability to do so will result in assured failure.


Basically, the goal with the countertrend system is to buy at the lowest low and sell at the highest high. The main difference between this and the trend-following system is that the countertrend system is not self-correcting. In other words, there is no set time to exit positions, and this results in an unlimited downside potential.


Types of Countertrend Systems.


Many different types of systems are considered countertrend systems. The idea here is to buy when momentum in one direction starts fading. This is most often calculated using oscillators. For example, a signal can be generated when stochastics or other relative strength indicators fall below certain points. There are other types of countertrend trading systems, but all of them share the same fundamental goal - to buy low and sell high.


E mpirical Decision-Making Required - For example, one of the factors the system developer must decide on is the points at which the relative strength indicators fade.


Extreme Volatility May Occur - These systems may also experience some extreme volatility, and an inability to stick with the system despite this volatility will result in assured failure.


Unlimited Downside - As previously mentioned, there is unlimited downside potential because the system is not self-correcting (there is no set time to exit positions).


The main markets for which trading systems are suitable are the equity, forex and futures markets. Each of these markets has its advantages and disadvantages. The two main genres of trading systems are the trend-following and the countertrend systems. Despite their differences, both types of systems, in their developmental stages, require empirical decision making on the part of the developer. Also, these systems are subject to extreme volatility and this may demand some stamina - it is essential that the system trader stick with his or her system during these times. In the following installment, we'll take a closer look at how to design a trading system and discuss some of the software that system traders use to make their lives easier.


How To Trade Trends.


If you are going to trade trends, no matter what the time frame, you are likely to encounter three major problems: false starts, early shakeouts and late exits.


False Starts.


Also known as whipsaws, false starts occur when your setup gives a positive signal, immediately followed by a reversal. You are no sooner stopped out of your position when the setup gives another buy signal. This is frustrating; and expensive. Many traders lose heart and fail to take the second entry, only to find that the trend spikes sharply upward, leaving them ready to throw their PC (or themselves) through the window.


If you move your stops up to below the low of each subsequent correction, there are going to be times when you are shaken out; no matter how strong the trend. It is just in the nature of the beast. Even if you are more cautious in ratcheting up your stops, applying some kind of filter, there are still going to be times when you are stopped out. And they are going to be expensive -- because of the filter. Shakeouts are covered in more detail elsewhere in the Trading Guide.


Here is a classic fast-trending stock from the ASX 200. Arc Energy has increased by more than 1000% in the last 4 years. The stock completed a broad double bottom in 2001, with a breakout at [C], and has never looked back. I have used point and figure charts because they are less subjective than the normal closing price or weekly candlestick charts.


Can you see how difficult it is to stay with the trend? Either insiders or professionals had recognized the stock's value and tried every trick in the book to shake out existing positions and claim a bigger stake for themselves. In all there are 16 potential false breaks or shake-outs.


Late Exits.


Late exits were covered under Selecting A Long-Term Moving Average but a quick recap may help.


Trend-following systems either suffer from a large number of shake-outs or are slow to exit when the trend reverses; and often both. You can't have your cake and eat it. We will deal more with exit strategies in a later article.


Taking Profits Too Early.


Apart from systemic problems we also need to consider the human aspect. A trend trading system builds psychological pressure as the trader witnesses repeated gains followed by significant retracements and frequent late exits at trend reversals. Pressure can build to such an extent that the trader overrides his system, attempting to take profits at a perceived high point in the trend. At this point he/she is following their emotions rather than a system -- a recipe for disaster.


Back Fitting Systems.


It makes sense to back-test your system on historical data, to ensure that it works, but don't waste time fine-tuning your settings to fit the data. You may design the perfect system to maximize profits on historical data but it will not work as well when you trade live: the future is never an exact replica of the past.


Design Considerations.


Type of Stocks and Trends.


Blue chip stocks are more reliable but don't expect to find many fast-moving trends. They tend to fall into the slow but steady category; though occasionally they may still spring a surprise.


Fast-moving, highly volatile stocks are more exciting, but also more difficult, to trade. Expect larger numbers of false starts, shakeouts and trend reversals.


Retracements.


What type of retracements are you likely to tolerate? This is difficult to answer in abstract, because of the lack of emotional pressure, but give it a try. Imagine that you have a million dollars riding on a single stock** that you have held for several months. How much of a retracement would you comfortably tolerate?


I believe that not many traders could honestly answer more than 20%; and many would be more comfortable with 10%. If that is your comfort zone, do not try to trade a system that tolerates higher retracements.


** Not that I would ever advise you to invest a million dollars in a single stock. It is just that a large sum of money brings home the significance of the percentage losses.


Time Frame.


What time frame do you plan to trade? Obviously the tolerated level of retracement will vary depending on the time frame. Also, a stock may be trending at different speeds (and directions) in separate time frames. Swing traders may be very happy with a stock that oscillates rapidly in a broad trend channel, while long-term traders may find that the swings overlap, resulting in a slow-moving primary trend.


Transaction Costs and Slippage.


What are your transaction costs per trade? Easy to calculate if your broker works on a straight percentage; a bit more difficult if you are charged a flat fee; even more difficult if you are charged a fixed fee per share.


Consolidations.


Do you want your money tied up in a stock that moves sideways for 6 months to a year? It may look great on a 10 year chart to be able to stay with a trend from start to finish, riding out the mid-point consolidation without being unseated. Bear in mind that you may end up with a negative return for a year or more, when you could have been making money elsewhere in the market. It is hard to maintain your enthusiasm for a system after several months of watching your stock becalmed. And mid-point consolidations look remarkably like tops, until they complete an upward breakout.


Realistic Expectations.


Newcomers often expect to catch trends from start to finish. It is not that easy.


Edwin Lefevre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923)


If you try to catch the absolute start of a trend, the number of false starts is likely to be so high that it will wreck the viability of your whole system. Similarly, if you try to catch the absolute peak, in most cases you are either going to exit too early or too late; again destroying the viability of the system. Most good systems are content to leave the early and late (and most uncertain) parts of the trend alone, only trading the strongest segments.


System Objectives.


The challenge is to bring the above considerations together in a cohesive set of realistic objectives:


If you are only prepared to tolerate a 10 per cent retracement, do not try to ride out major corrections. If you are prepared to tolerate a 10 or 20 per cent retracement, consider trading lower-risk blue chip stocks in the hope of limiting the number of times that you are stopped out in a trend. Or are you prepared to endure more stop-outs in the hope of greater returns from faster-moving stocks? If your transaction costs are high, you will need to limit the number of times that you are stopped out in the trend. Are you prepared to tolerate deep retracements or will you trade more reliable, slower-moving stocks? If you intend to trade a shorter time frame, you will need to minimize your transaction costs. How will you identify suitable trends, separating faster-moving and slower-moving stocks? How much of the early part of the trend do you need to sacrifice in order to minimize false starts? This is especially important if you are going to trade more volatile stocks. How will you identify and cope with shake-outs: where there are two (or even three) successive down-swings before the up-trend resumes? How will you cope emotionally if you are repeatedly stopped out? Will you have the resolve to stick to your system? How will you identify and cope with blow-offs, where price goes into an almost vertical spike? These tend to reverse sharply, leaving trend-following exits far behind. If you trade breakouts, how will you cope with false breaks or fake-outs?


Using the same Arc Energy as earlier, here is an example of a long-term system that may be used by a trader with high transaction costs and who is prepared to tolerate fairly deep (20%) retracements. Again, I have used point and figure charts because they are less subjective. Box size is 10 with reversal amount of 2.


Entry is made at 20 cents on the start of a new column [1] after the pull-back respected support at [0]. Exit would have been made in column [2] if the retracement had continued to 40 cents (20%). Stopped out at 42 cents when the retracement [3] falls below the previous low [2]. Re-enter at 46 cents on the start of a new column after the higher low [4].


An alternative approach, that could be employed by a trader with lower transaction costs and possibly a lower tolerance for retracements. Box size is 5 with reversal amount of 2.


Entry at 19 cents on start of a new column after the pull-back respects support. Stopped out at 17.5 cents.


Re-enter at 18.5 cents on completion of false break. Exit at 49 cents, immediately after "long pole" (or "flagpole") with more than 10 boxes above the previous up-swing.


Flagpoles are one method of identifying market spikes or "blow-offs". Re-enter at 45 cents after double bottom. Stopped out on lower low at 49 cents. Re-enter at 44 cents on new high (above previous up-swing). Stopped out on lower low at 47 cents. Re-enter at 45 cents precedes another possible flagpole (ignored here). Stopped out at 55 cents. Another shake-out. Re-enter at 65 cents on higher high. Another shake-out at 87.5 Re-enter at 90 after higher low. Stopped at 175 cents after higher low. Re-enter at 175 cents.


Gross trading profits are almost identical at 178.5 cents compared to 176 cents for the earlier example. But when we factor in transaction costs and slippage (at a combined 0.75% per trade) the last example falls to 169.5, because of the higher number of transactions, while the earlier example falls only slightly to 173.5 cents. As you can see, there is not much between the two approaches. And the example chosen, with a fast trend, few strong corrections and many attempted shake-outs, may flatter the first approach over the latter.


What the above examples do illustrate, though, is that, provided we are able to identify fast-moving trends, transaction costs are secondary, relative to overall system performance.


Trend traders face three major obstacles: false starts (or whipsaws), frequent shake-outs and late exits. Frequent shake-outs can present a problem even with the strongest trends. Your system should consider the time frame that you are trading; your transaction costs; your ability to endure frequent stops; and your tolerance for strong corrections. Finally, you need to decide whether you are going to trade fast-moving, highly volatile stocks (with greater risk) or slower, steadier blue chips.


In the weeks ahead I hope to answer more of the questions posed under Design Objectives (above) and compare the performance of several different trend filters and exit strategies.


How to Build and Trade a Trend-Following Strategy.


Price action and Macro.


Traders should look to match their strategy with the appropriate market condition. Trends can be attractive since a bias has been witnessed in that particular market. In this article, we show how traders can begin to develop their own trend-trading strategy.


To anyone trading in markets, it’s often advisable to have a strategy of some type to go about doing it.


After all, just ‘guessing’ isn’t likely going to work out too well for anyone speculating in markets over the long run. Having some idea for the type of situation one is looking for can be extremely helpful. With a strategy, traders can look to focus on situations in which the market may be giving them the best probabilities of success.


After discovering the necessity of a strategy, traders will often go on to seek the ‘best’ strategy that they can find. This can be an elongated process for some folks, as many traders are often looking for something that doesn’t exist: They’re looking for the strategy that rarely (or never) loses.


This just doesn’t exist.


Regardless of how strong a strategy ever might be, it will never be 100% predictive of market movements. The future is opaque with or without a strong strategy. A good strategy can simply allow the trader to focus on higher-probability setups and situations in an effort to win more money than they lose; so that they may be able to net a profit.


As we looked at in the article, How to Build a Trading Strategy , markets will often exhibit one of three different conditions, and traders are often best served by matching their strategy with the appropriate market condition. In this article, and the next two we will examine each of these three conditions in more depth so that traders can decide how to more adequately formulate their strategies.


In this article, we’re going to focus on the most popular condition: Trends.


Of the three possible market conditions, trends are probably the most popular amongst traders; and the reason for that is what we had alluded to a little earlier.


The future is opaque, and price movements are unpredictable. By simply recognizing a trend, the trader has noticed a bias that has shown itself in the marketplace. Maybe there is improving fundamental data for that economy; or perhaps it’s a central-bank driven move on the back of ‘Yen-tervention’ or another round of QE.


Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; Prepared by James Stanley.


Whatever the reason, a bias exists in the market and that’s visible from the trajectory on the chart. The alluring part of this is that if that bias continues, the trader might be able to jump on the trend, and let the market do the heavy lifting of moving the position into profitable territory.


Another attractive aspect of trading with trends is that the speculator can look to employ the age-old logic of ‘buy-low, sell-high.’ It’s not enough to simply buy an up-trend, or to sell a down-trend. Traders are often best served by waiting for the up-trend to pull back before buying (or waiting for a down-trend to rip higher before selling), in an effort to enter the position as cheaply as possible.


This way, if the trend doesn’t continue, the trader can exit the position quickly before the loss becomes too unbearable. But if the trend does continue, the trader might be able to profit by three, four, or five times the amount they had to initially risk to enter the trade. This is a non-threatening way that traders can look to avoid The Number One Mistake that FX Traders Make .


How to Build a Trend Strategy.


Many of the most popular indicators can be helpful when designing a trend strategy. And to take technical analysis a step further when designing a trend-trading approach, many traders will look to utilize multiple time frame analysis in order to get multiple looks at a trending market.


We discussed the concept of Multiple Time Frame Analysis in the article, The Time Frames of Trading . In the article, we suggest potential time frames that traders can look to utilize based on their desired holding times.


When utilizing multiple time frame analysis with a trend-trading strategy, traders are often going to look to the longer time frame to find and diagnose the strength of the trend. This can be done in a multitude of ways. Some traders will prefer to do this without any indicators at all, using price and price alone (the study of which is referred to as ‘Price Action,’ which you can learn more about HERE ).


Other traders will look to one of the more common indicators, the moving average . There are a lot of different flavors and types of moving averages, but the goal is all the same – to show us a ‘line-in-the-sand’ as to whether price movements are ‘above-average’ or ‘below-average’ for a given period of time.


Moving Averages can help traders diagnose and trade trends.


Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; Prepared by James Stanley.


After the trend has been diagnosed, the trader can then plot the entry into the position; and for that, there are a multitude of options available.


Entering into the Trend.


There is an old saying that goes: ‘The Trend is your friend… until it ends.’


This one line pretty much sums up the quandary that traders are faced with when trading trends. While a bias has been exhibited in the marketplace, and may continue; there is no such thing as a ‘sure-fire trend continuation setup.’


So, when the trend doesn’t continue, the trader is often advised to look to mitigate the loss so that a reversal doesn’t damage their trading account too badly.


In an effort to be as precise as possible, many traders will move down to a lower time frame in an effort to get a more detailed look at the move inside of the larger-term trend.


Some traders will use price action to enter on the lower time frame, in anticipation of the larger-picture trend continuing. We outlined such an approach in the article, Using Price Action to Trade Trends .


Price Action can help traders diagnose and trade trends.


Traders can also look to use indicators to plot an entry, under the premise that the longer-term trend may be at the early stages of its continuation; and can be entered upon with the shorter-term chart.


There are numerous indicator options for this premise. Many traders will look to oscillators such as RSI or MACD to trigger the position. Other popular options are MACD, Stochastics , CCI , and the moving average crossover .


Traders looking to speculate with the trend want to focus ONLY on signals that move in that direction.


So, for instance, if an up-trend has been found on the longer-term chart, then the trader is only looking to buy. If they are looking to sell, then it’s not a trend-trading strategy any longer as the trader is looking for a reversal (or a swing) that doesn’t agree with the longer-term trend direction.


Types of Trend-Trading Strategies.


We talk a lot about trend-trading at DailyFX, and one of the primary reasons for this is that it is one of the more clean ways to utilize a trader’s analysis into a trading plan .


After all, the future is unknown; and nobody has a crystal ball that will magically foretell tomorrow’s price movements. But the fact of the matter is that biases do exist, trends do take place (for a reason), and in many cases those trends may continue.


In the article Using Price Action to Trade Trends , we show traders how such an approach can be built without the necessity of any indicators at all. Price and price alone is often enough to show traders what they need to see to decide when and how they want to enter trades in the direction of the trend.


If traders want a more objective way of trading with trends, they can look to implement an indicator like RSI to trigger the position after the trend has been graded on the longer-term chart with Price Action. We covered this approach in the article, Price Action with RSI .


Traders looking to use indicator-based strategies can take this a step further with the logic utilized in my ‘fingertrap’ scalping strategy. This strategy was fully outlined in the article Short-Term Momentum Scalping in the Forex Market . In the strategy, moving averages are used to grade the trend on a longer time frame, and a moving average/price action crossover on the shorter time frame is used to trigger in the direction of the trend. While this is designed as a scalping strategy, traders can certainly swap out the time frames with those suggested in The Time Frames of Trading to make the logic of the strategy operable on a longer-term basis.


-- Written by James Stanley.


James is available on Twitter JStanleyFX.


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How to create the best stock trading system.


Stock trading system is a form of your complete trading business plan . You should follow the rules listed there to achieve results you want – making money, generate a wealth or find financial and living freedom.


Such plan using to trade stock markets should be prepared for all different situation you can expect that happen. And as you cannot predict everything in advance, you should review your stock trading business plan regularly.


5 STEPS TO SET YOUR SIMPLE TRADING SYSTEM.


Enter your name and to get Instant Access to my FREE tips to get you started on the right path and of course to my regular newsletter with stock picks and attractive ETFs.


Starting basics for any market system.


The first what you define when you writing a trading plan are the basics and parts you should have in your written document.


You can start with these ideas for writing a trading plan. Then you should include these basic rules for any stock market business plan. Do not forget to decide what type of stock trading you will use. Learn three ways to play the stock market trading game and win. Check four steps for successful trading stocks for a living Follow steps to start swing trading for a living Learn How much money can you make with a profitable trading system.


How to organize your day to trade stocks.


Stock trading is not only about placement of order, entering or exiting of position. There should be also everyday rules for chart analysis, stock market analysis, position management and much more. All these parts should be included in your system you use for making money on the markets.


You can divide your working day to different time parts based on time zone where you live and what market you use for your system. I live in Europe and trade US stock markets mostly so my workday time schedule is different then schedule of a trader living in America.


One part of your time schedule defined in your system should be pre-trading routine . You have to do similar tasks before market is open. Another routine that should be part of stock trading system is needed to recognize stock trading mistakes and correct them.


Select proper strategy for your stock trading system.


Very important part of a good stock trading system are rules that help to decide what type of strategy is best for today’s stock market situation.


The market situation changes from uptrend to sideways movement and to downtrend. Most of the time market spends in sideways trading, based on a long term statistics. So it is good to have several different strategies in your system. Some for bullish scenario, some for a trading range and some short selling strategies for bear market.


The most common trading strategies used by technically based trades are breakout and pullback trades.


Short sell strategy trade example.


How to set up entry, stop-loss and targets for your trades.


You need to have these important values prepared for each opportunity you like and that fit with your stock trading system.


You need to define:


a good entry price where to place stop loss possible targets where you can realize profits. your risk:reward ratio. It will tell you if your setup is good and worth trading.


I use these two main ways how to setup entry for my trades.


Entering and exiting stock trade.


Knowledge of the right order types used to enter or close the position is part of a good system. Read also why I don’t enter stop orders before the exchange is open. I use pre market stock trading hours for my exits from time to time It is important to stick with your risk management rules defined in your system and do not chase the moving share price. It could be crucial for for your online trading and investing results to know when to sell stocks in your portfolio. Prepare list of rules to sell shares.


Swing Trade example.


Trade management of your positions.


A good trader has to take care of every opened position. You also must regularly monitor price development of any position opened in your portfolio. This should be defined in your system rules too.


The most important tasks of position management for your system are.


trailing (moving) stop level profit taking exit decision if the breakout or breakdown fails Rules defining how many stocks to own in portfolio at one time.


Low cost trade can be achieved only using proper risk management rules. I recommend to check earnings date for every opportunity you find. Here is description what realtime stock charts I monitor during a day. A very profitable approach in trade management is adding into an already profitable position or re-entry of trade. Prepare a list of rules for all these tasks in advance and follow them in your trading.


Do not forget to study what are major mistakes in swing trading stocks systems to avoid them and shorten your learning.


Write all the answers to the questions listed above on paper to ensure you won’t omit them in the future. These rules are the basics of your stock trading system .


SET YOUR SMART AND SIMPLE TRADING SYSTEM.


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